TRREB released its July 2026 Market Watch this week. Prices are still soft, but the easy negotiating conditions we've seen for the past year are starting to shift.
Here's the breakdown, and what it means if you're renting and thinking about buying your first home.
Every month I get some version of the same question
Renters ask me: "Is now a good time to buy, or should I wait?"
The July numbers give a pretty clear answer. And it's a little more urgent than it was a few months ago.
The headline numbers
GTA average price: $1,003,956. Down 4.5% from a year ago.
Home sales: 5,995. Down slightly, 0.9% year over year.
New listings: 14,484. Down 17.8% year over year.
Active listings: 26,098. Down 12.1% year over year, but still healthy.
On the surface, this looks like more of the same slow market we've had through 2026.
But look closer and there's a shift happening. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales went up month over month. New listings went down. That's what a tightening market looks like.
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld put it this way: "If current trends continue, home prices could start to level off compared to last year. Many would-be homebuyers are waiting for confidence in the market and broader economy to improve before making a purchase."
What this means if you're renting and thinking about buying
Two things are true right now, and both work in favor of buyers who act instead of waiting indefinitely.
First, prices are still down from a year ago. The MLS HPI Composite benchmark is off 4.6% year over year. Average selling price is down a similar 4.5%. You are not buying at the top.
Second, you still have real selection and time to think it through. Active listings sit at 26,098. That's well above what you'd expect in a seller's market. Homes are also taking a bit longer to sell, up 12.5% year over year in average days on market. That means less pressure to make a rushed offer.
Here's the catch. New listings are drying up fast, down almost 18% year over year. And sales just posted a month over month gain. If that pattern holds into the fall, and it could if borrowing costs stabilize, the current mix of soft prices and buyer leverage won't last.
Where this matters most for downtown condo buyers
If you're looking at a condo in King West, the Entertainment District, the Financial District, or the Distillery District, this is good news.
The condo apartment segment is still the softest part of the market. It's also the most accessible entry point into ownership in dollar terms.
Across the 416, condo apartments averaged $672,807 in July. That's basically flat year over year, down just 1.6%. That's meaningfully more stable than detached homes, and still the most realistic first step for most renters moving into ownership.
The bottom line
Prices are still favorable. Inventory is still healthy. Rates have held steady, with the 5 year fixed around 6.09% and prime at 4.5%.
But the balance between supply and demand is shifting month over month. If you've been waiting for the right time, this is close to it. It may not last through the fall.
Ali Khalil is a registered Real Estate Salesperson with Royal LePage Terrequity Realty, Brokerage (independently owned and operated). Market data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Market Watch, July 2026. This article is for general informational purposes and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Individual results vary. Consult a mortgage professional for financing guidance specific to your situation.
